OBSERVATIONS FROM FLY OVER COUNTRY

N.  Korea Part #3

This will be my final post in this series regarding N. Korea. In part #1 – I gave a brief history and described the approach of three previous U.S. presidents (Clinton – Bush – Obama). In part #2 – I outlined the U.S. approach to diplomacy using the very simplified approach D.I.M.E. (Diplomacy – Information – Military – Economics).

HOW TO VIEW DIPLOMACY: We have allies around the world but please do not confuse allies as a synonym for friend. Allies enter into formal agreements such as NATO or they simply have a mutual or a shared interest. We spy on our allies and they spy on us. It is embarrassing when we get caught like the time President Barack Obama wiretapped German Chancellor Angela Merkel In 2010. Israel has been caught spying on the U.S. etc. etc.
As kids, we played the board game “RISK” where the object was to put your forces up against opposing forces to capture all the regions and countries of the world. Sometimes you would form an alliance with another player in order to defeat a much stronger opponent. But once that strong opponent was weakened or destroyed you would attack the player you formed an alliance with. It is the same in the world. The United States forms alliances where we have mutual or shared interests.

END STATE:

N. KOREA: The end state for the DPKR is simple. 1 – Kim Jung-Un remains in power 2 – N. Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons 3 – N. Korea continues to develop I.C.B.M. (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) (NOTE: N. Korea must continue on this path because they can export the technology or sell to other countries and non-state actors such as Islamic Terrorists & Iran.) If you look at the history of N. Korea they have always pushed the envelope just like the little Toady on the school yard. But for N. Korea being provocative on the world stage has gotten N. Korea free stuff like food and oil so the DPKR assumes that it is business as usual.
Remember, N. Korea loves being the shrimp amongst whales or playing the part of the mouse that roared.

UNITED STATES: The end state for the United States is the dismantling of N. Korea’s nuclear program, the dismantling of their ICBM program, plus the means to verify that this is done. Russia & China will present a solution on the world stage that promises that N. Korea will stop all research.
(NOTE: In 1994 President Clinton announced THE AGREED FRAMEWORK which was the agreement that had N. Korea promising to stop nuclear research and the U.S. promised to ease sanctions, provide oil and assist N. Korea with construction of a light water reactor. The Yongbyon nuclear facility was never dismantled and the agreement by Clinton was just like the agreement between President Obama and Iran. It was a treaty never ratified by congress, congress was not obligated to follow it.)

Some push for regime change but who knows what the world would get to replace Kim Jung-Un. Ultimately it would be best for the world if N. Korea joined the rest of the world as a contributing productive member instead of a threatening provocative menacing Little Toady. Some will push for unification of North and South Korea. Unification might happen at some point in the future but should not be a critical element at this time. Stability in the region is the end state. (NOTE: my opinion not official policy)

TO BE CLEAR: N. Korea must stop nuclear and ICBM research and the systems dismantled with follow-up verification of the dismantling. N. Korea knows that the world does not have the will and is betting that the U.S. will not have the will to take action.

DIPLOMACY: The U.S. will work to establish an alliance with China and Russia because both are critical to the U.S. end state. (REMEMBER: Politics makes strange bedfellows.) Both Russia and China have their own interests and dare I say cannot be trusted, but we need to find common ground, if we can. The U.S., S. Korea and Japan need to work within the United Nations to pass sanctions and an authorization of force resolution. But China and Russia each can veto any proposal. With that said the U.S. and its allies will work to impose UN language which supports the end state desired by the U.S. and its allies.

DIPLOMACY FAILS:

N. KOREA: The DPKR continues to test ICBM’s and nuclear devices. N. Korea continues its provocative behavior because that has gotten N. Korea to this point. This provocative behavior has been successful since THE AGREED FRAMEWORK.

UNITED STATES: After Diplomacy has failed can President Trump authorize force or does Congress need to authorize it? Remember the most recent debate when President Obama launched strikes against Libya (U.S. CONSTITUTION: Only Congress can declare war but the President can permit the use of military force.)

SATELLITE: The U.S. will use its satellites to be alerted to any troop movement and activity at missile and nuke locations in N. Korea. When at some point it is determined that N. Korea will not cease and desist and that neither China nor Russia can or will help America must strike.

THE STRIKE: Remember that intelligence is always a best guess. There are always gaps and that the enemy gets a vote so there are many unknowns. The U.S. would begin with a deep strike utilizing stealth fighters and bombers. N. Korea does have a dense interlocking anti-air network but it is obsolete. On the heels of stealth airplanes, the U.S. would use Tomahawk land cruise missiles to further damage targets, the Ohio-class cruise missile submarines and the 7th Fleet which is stationed in Japan and S. Korea. Not counting the Tomahawk missiles, the navy can launch 900 missiles at selected targets. For the nuclear facilities, the U.S. 509th Bomb wing from the Whitman Air Base in Missouri has a continuous presence in the region. These bombers would drop the M.O.P (Massive Ordinance Penetrators) which is a 30,000 pound bomb. I will stop here as you get the picture of first strike activity in the first few hours.

U.S. TARGETS: During the initial targeting process the United States and its allies would target N. Korean Missile, nuclear facilities, communication facilities, transportation (train – road), troop concentrations along DMZ, air bases and hardened FA positions within range of Seoul. There will be different targets and priorities. Mobile missiles will be critical because we must assume that the DPKR has a nuke on a missile and the danger of an air-burst causing a EMP needs to be prevented. (NEMP: nuclear electromagnetic pulse which causes surges in electricity resulting in large area blackouts. Military electrical equipment is hardened against this but civilian equipment is not.)

DEFENSE: Between the U.S. and S. Korea there are many defensive systems. One of the best defenses is offensive weapons and the superbly trained troops both countries have.

DPKR RESPONSE: N. Korea is powerless to stop a strike but they can and will respond. The first kinetic response will be the FA (Field Artillery) which is already positioned inside cement bunkers. The majority of DPKR artillery can only range the Northern most suburbs of Seoul S. Korea. Based on recent DPKR live artillery firing we know that they have a 25% failure rate. The N. Korean air force has approximately 1,300 planes. Approximately 200 are newer but the remaining are legacy places from the 50’s & 60’s to include bi-wing planes. The U.S., S. Korea, Japan and other partners will remove the N. Korean air force in a day or two.

GROUND FORCE: N. Korea has 6,445,000 troops for its army, air force and navy. 945,000 are active and the rest are reserves. Moving troops and supplies will be a problem. DPKR has 5,000 tanks but the majority are 1960’s versions or older.
N. Korea will either attack military targets or civilian targets. My guess is civilian targets to get the media to report heart string stories and cause the world to call for a halt to the conflict.

MISSILES: After the initial strike the U.S. and its allies must watch for mobile missile systems that can deliver a nuke (EMP) or chemical and biological weapons. If the DPKR can, it will launch an ICBM towards the United States. The majority of the missiles will all be aimed at civilian centers in S. Korea, Japan and the United States.

CHINA – RUSSIA: I believe that Trump has assured China and Russia that the U.S. is not after regime change. If/when the U.S. was to strike we would not push to far north of the DMZ and pull back to the DMZ once hostilities cease. Russia and China would post troops along their border with N. Korea to stop refugees at the border. Refugee camps would also be set up to support refugees. China and Russia would take to the floor of the UN demanding a stop to the conflict. Both would make statements condemning the action.

CONCLUSION: I could (should) go into more detail but you get the gist of this discussion. Diplomacy is the preferred method but as Pyongyang perfects the ICBM and the delivery system that represents (EMP – chemical – biological) do you want to wait and hope that Kim Jung-Un will never use one?

UNKNOWN: Just like President Ronald Reagan was different from previous presidents Trump is different. Time will tell which scenario becomes reality. Whatever the decision it will not be easy. Do we ally with Russia and China and trust them completely? If it is evident the alliance is not working, does the United States lead a preemptive strike?

I apologize for the simplicity and length but this is a difficult issue. There is much more detail that can and should be put into these three posts on N. Korea. My hope is that these three posts arm you with enough knowledge and understanding to assist as you listen to the news.

Pray for cool heads and peace.

What is the world’s best option to deal with the DPKR? OPS my bad! Let me re-phase that question because it is not the world’s problem but specifically it is the problem of S. Korea, Japan and the United States. Practice missiles fired by the DPKR have never been aimed towards the West but always to the East towards Japan and the United States. A cease-fire was signed July 27, 1953 which means that North and South Korea are still at war. Since that time there have been over 200 live gun-fire incidents between the two countries. The most recent August 2015 was an artillery exchange. In the July 2017 ICBM missile test Kim Jung-Un said that it was a gift to the QUOTE: “American Bastards”.

SCHOOL YARD BULLY: Every kid has had to deal with the school yard bully. But the real pain in the butt was the smart mouthed little toady that hung with the bully and was protected by the bully. In the past the Soviet Union has used Cuba as its toady and both China and Russia have used N. Korea as their toady. The school yard bully used the toady as a bargaining chip to see how much could be gotten away with before the teacher cracks down. So the bully is always in the background and pushes the little toady out front.
I hope that I have set the stage for part #2. As I said in part #1 I will frame this next part of the discussion around the term D.I.M.E. Diplomacy – Information – Military – Economics please remember that elements in diplomacy are both overt and covert.

DIPLOMACY:
There are 24 countries in the world that have diplomatic embassies in N. Korea. All are located within the diplomatic compound except for Russia, China and Pakistan because they have the largest embassies.

CHINA: China has always been a very populated country; even today China is about 19% of the world’s population. In recent years China has emerged from its cloistered existence. China was placed onto the world’s stage following the 1972 visit by President Nixon. Diplomacy with China began to change.
Remember my school yard bully toady concept. Why would China really want N. Korea to stop what it is doing? There is no gain for China. In diplomacy with China it must be made clear how allowing N. Korea to continue will actually harm China. China is concerned with commerce and protecting its border along the Amnok River and that is the key to diplomacy with China and N. Korea.

RUSSIA: Since the economic rise of China and the fall of the Soviet Union Russia has not had as much involvement with N. Korea. The DPKR Air Force is made up of Russian planes so this is the Russian military connection. With that said Russia would not want N. Korea to fall as it does provide a buffer from an American ally S. Korea along the Tumen River. Russia would feel the same about N. Korea and S. Korea becoming one as it felt about the fall of the Iron Curtain and many of the former communist bloc countries joining NATO. Russia has said that they will not allow the U.S. to attack N. Korea even if the UN sanctions it.
Russia as a school yard bully will want to keep N. Korea between them and the teacher.

U.N.: Many countries in the U.N. do not feel threatened by N. Korea. However, Europe should and Israel does because Iran is a key partner with N. Korea. They trade scientists and information about ICBM’s as well as nuclear technology. The U.S. will locate a missile defense at Redzikowo, Poland. The system is a deterrent to Iranian missiles. Obama removed the missiles from Poland because Russia did not like that the missiles were in Poland but Trump will put them back in place. The U.S. will wish to have the UN pass a resolution against N. Korea and its ICBM and nuke testing.

N. KOREA: Kim Jung-Un will keep his nukes and his power at any costs. Kim Jung-Un knows two things. First China has never abandoned the DPKR. Second in all confrontations with every President of the United States N. Korea has always prevailed and America has capitulated. To be clear N. Korea is operating on what has been – will continue to be & China will continue to support & they assume Trump will give in. So in the end N. Korea will have ICBM’s with nuclear warheads and America will give the DPKR something.
U.S.: America will have diplomat’s negotiating with various countries. There will be statements made publicly which may or may not be true and the same with statements made behind the scene to a State or individual that America knows will get that message back to N. Korea, Russia and China. President Trump just left the G20 and had meetings with China and Russia and I am certain that he explained to each what is acceptable or not. I will go out on a limb and say that Trump assured both that if it becomes necessary to use military force, America will not go beyond a certain point North of the 38th parallel. After the dust settles the US will return to the 38th.

INFORMATION:  
Information between all of the players in the region will be exchanged. As I mentioned in part #1
In an effort for brevity I will make a general statement about information. There will be information put out via official channels. March 2017 Secretary Tillerson said, “Let me be very clear: The policy of strategic patience has ended.” The first President Bush used news outlets to send bad information to Saddam Husain during the buildup of Desert Storm. This administration will do the same. An example I heard is that Charles Krauthammer stated that perhaps we would give nuclear weapons to Japan and S. Korea.
China and Russia stated “We’ve agreed to promote our joint initiative, based on Russian step-by-step Korean settlement plan and Chinese ideas to simultaneously freeze North Korean nuclear and missile activities, and U.S. and South Korean joint military drills.” Vladimir Putin has warned the U.S. against attempting to intimidate North Korea after Pyongyang said it had successfully launched a nuclear-capable missile in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions.
N. Korea will continue to make provocative threats and so will Russia and China. China and Russia will also offer solutions which will leave our allies in a weakened position but to the world will appear to be solid offers. China and Russia will make provocative protective statements regarding N. Korea to save face on the world stage. They must do that as it is part of the dance.

MILITARY:
U.S. We have done several staged ICBM intercepts in the past few months. We have deployed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile shield system to South Korea, which could shoot down incoming missiles from the North. We have staged several naval formations in waters off the Korean peninsula. We have conducted our normal annual military war-games with our allies in the area.
Trump met with China, Russia, Japan and S. Korea during the G20 summit and N. Korea would have been a hot topic.

N. KOREA: DPKR will continue to be provocative because that has gotten them status in the past. N. Korea loves being the shrimp amongst whales or playing the part of the mouse that roared. DPKR ICBM’s can reach into Europe so Europe needs to be concerned. In the past N. Korea got concessions from President Clinton, Bush and Obama so why not continue what has been successful.

S. KOREA: S. Korea will continue to re-position troops along the border and train with their allies. Their soldiers will train on the new THAAD system and other early warning systems. The U.S. will share intelligence and satellite images of N. Korea.

ECONOMICS:
CHINA: China is the largest trading partner with the DPKR and Pakistan is the 2nd largest. 43% of the exports from the DPKR are coal. Two large imports are refined petroleum and trucks. Speaking of trucks when you view the large military parades in N. Korea the vehicles look exactly like Chinese trucks because they are. America can offer to replace the coal traded with N. Korea at no cost but how long can that go on? Chinese banking could be a target but of the 5 largest banks in the world China owns 4 of them.

RUSSIA: Russia is not that big of a trading partner. Russia has natural resources in much larger quantity than N. Korea so does not import a lot. But N. Korea has Russian planes so Russia is an exporter to N. Korea.

EUROPE: If you look at pipelines from Russia across Europe it looks like blood veins. Trump signed a Natural Gas treaty with Poland while at the G20. The statement following the signing made it clear that America will and can export petroleum products and is a competitor to Russia. Besides petroleum products military equipment is the other large export of Russia but not to Europe. In effect the U.S. exports of petroleum products are a tourniquet on the Russian pipelines across Europe.

N. KOREA: We can place a blockade around N. Korea and we know from the Bush years that Kim Jung-Un will simply starve his people. Because America has a soft heart we sent food which was perceived as giving in to the demands. Clinton sent oil.

UNITED STATES: The world’s largest economy is the United States. Russia’s major export and largest income source is petroleum products. May 2017 Trump met with and praised our petroleum allies in the Middle East. I bet when Trump met with these leaders Trump discussed his intentions regarding petroleum exports to Europe in order to affect diplomacy with Russia. When Trump met with Putin I bet he explained how Russia could get back into the game but what needed to happen with regards to N. Korea without identifying red lines.

The United States can and should place sanctions on any country that has N. Korean workers in their country. N. Korea uses its people as laborers to other countries and receives payment for these laborers. Cheap labor is one of their exports.

NOTE: Iran and N. Korea are working closely together so Iran will watch closely how we handle N. Korea.

I apologize for the length of the N. Korean posts, but this is a very difficult topic and there is much more that can and should be said. This ends part #2 = part #3 to follow shortly.

AMERICA HATES COP’s

WHAT: Does America believe in the rule of law? Does America have a foundation in the rule of law? Why is there so much hate aimed at police? When/where did this hate start?

THE FOUNDATION: The rule of law expressed by John Adams, “to the end it may be a government of laws, not of men.” The fathers of our country read Plato and Aristotle and their writings claiming that obedience to positive law, as well as checks on rulers and magistrates was necessary. England gave us the Magna Carta (1215) which states “No free man shall be taken, imprisoned, disseized, outlawed, banished, or in any way destroyed, nor will he proceed against or prosecute him, except by the lawful judgment of his peers and the Law of the Land.” In the 17th century English writings of Henry de-Bracton, Edward Coke, and William Blackstone helped establish that the King was subject to the law. During our American Revolution Thomas Paine wrote about these concepts in his papers “Common Sense”.

IS AMERICA DIFFERENT: Many countries aspire to follow their laws and their constitution, but in America our Constitution and laws are binding! The rule of law expressed in the American Constitution and Bill of Rights is the bedrock of our legal system. This is the first principle on which our legal system is built. Our founding fathers felt that the RULE OF LAW is fundamental of a free and just government. John Adams wrote good government and the very definition of a republic is an empire of laws.

WHERE/WHEN DID THIS HATE START: The bad guys always disliked police but for most Americans the police have always been the friendly face in a time of need. Today police make an extra effort to reach the community they serve and protect, but that is not always enough. Some public confusion has to do with police image portrayed on media. Some has to do with local leadership, but today blame lies at the feet of national leaders.

LEADERS SET THE TONE: Intentional or not, our leaders have set the tone of cop hating and public distrust we see today. It started in 2009 when President Obama said, “The Cambridge Police acted stupidly” when they arrested Henry Louis Gates Jr. a professor at Harvard. It continued when Obama said. “If I had a son he would look like Trayvon,” referencing the Trayvon Martin shooting in Florida. The biggest rock that President Obama tossed at the rule of law was when he made this statement regarding the findings of the Ferguson Grand jury; “We need to accept that this decision was the grand jury’s to make. There are Americans who agree with it, and there are Americans who are deeply disappointed, even angry. It’s an understandable reaction.” End of statement. No explanation from Obama the former Constitutional Professor to the Black Community why the Grand Jurys finding was acceptable and correct. President Obama made a conscious decision to punch the thin blue line.

NEW YORK CITY: I will not spend much time on New York Mayor de Blasio’s well documented dislike of police. A few days ago police officer Miosotis Familia, a single mother of three was assassinated. Instead of remaining in town to support the family and show support to the police community by attending the NYPD police swearing in De Blasio chose to go to Germany to speak to G20 protesters. De Blasio is the text book example of a leader encouraging hate and disrespect and yet his ten man security detail is made up of NY Police.

PERFECT POLICE: No element in society is perfect or without bad apples. Police would be the first to admit that and they work hard to weed the bad actors out of the system. School liaison and community outreach can help with their image and increase understanding. The media could help when police are in riot gear forming that thin blue line to keep opposing groups of protesters apart in order to protect the public from each other. Police now have body cameras to help tell the story etc.

THIN BLUE LINE: Venezuela and Somalia are examples of two countries that do not have rule of law. The strong men in those countries determine what the rules are to be. In America we can walk our streets; our homes do not need bars on the windows because of the efforts by our police. When there is a reference to our police force the slang is THE THIN BLUE LINE. Thin is the operative word because they are all that stand between society and chaos.

THINK ABOUT IT AND BE THANKFUL: Think what your life would truly be like without that thin blue line. Your police are your neighbors, parents, husbands, wives, uncles, aunts, brothers, sisters and grandparents so I encourage you to introduce your children to their local police.

Say, “Thank you.”

Joe Scarborough leaves The Republican Party

WHO WHAT: Who is Joe Scarborough you ask? Joe and co-host Mika Brezinski have a morning show on MSNBC called “MORNING JOE”. Who is Mika Brzezinski you ask? Brzezinski is the daughter of political scientist & diplomat Zbigniew Brzezinski, who served as adviser to presidents Lyndon B. Johnson and Jimmy Carter. Apparently Joe Scarborough was a Florida Republican representative from 1995 – 2001. I have watched the “MORNING JOE” show numerous times and based on comments Joe made when I watched, I never knew that Joe Scarborough was a Republican, certainly not a Conservative.

SEE MY SHOCKED FACE: Back in the day I had a Command Sergeant Major that would exclaim “SEE MY SHOCKED FACE” when something like this would happen. Imagine my shocked face when it was announced today that Joe is leaving the Republican Party.

THE BACK STORY: Mika and Joe are engaged to be married and claimed to be insiders to the Trump White House but, Joe & Mika got into a twitter war with Trump. Trump was extremely critical of Joe and Mika and the Tweets got personal. Now Joe states that Republicans have given up their CORE values. I wonder, is that the real reason Joe?

ON HIS HIGH HORSE: Joe said he is leaving the GOP because Republican members have betrayed their CORE values and never criticize Trump. “How much of this country and our values are they willing to sell out?” Joe lamented.

OH NO: Senator John McCain has been on this show many times and he accused Joe of slobbering over Trump every morning. Remember John McCain is the Maverick Republican Senator from Arizona. Re-read the last paragraph please, Joe is leaving the GOP because Republicans do not criticize Trump.

ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICANS NEVER CRITIZE TRUMP: Just as it happened during the 2015/16 primary, the general election and since the swearing in numerous Republicans have criticized Trump. Some of the Republican criticism of Trumps statements regarding Joe Scarborough & his fiancé Mika are: “Your tweet was beneath the office” =&= “Obviously, I don’t see that as an appropriate comment,” =&= “should model civility, honor, and respect in our political rhetoric” =&= “Please just stop. This isn’t normal and it’s beneath the dignity of your office.” =&= “This has to stop – we all have a job – 3 branches of gov’t and media. We don’t have to get along, but we must show respect and civility.” =&= “Stop it! The Presidential platform should be used for more than bringing people down.” =&= “Inappropriate. Un-dignified. Un-presidential.” And so on and on went the Republican criticism of this one tweet.

A BIG DEAL: So why is Joe making such a big deal about leaving the GOP now? A better question might be who cares? Trump has made many of the Main Stream Media millions of dollars to include the “MORNING JOE SHOW”. My guess is it got personal so Joe decided to take his toys and go home.

NBC TAPES & TRUMP: During the 2016 campaign NBC released tapes of Trump talking about women. A local politician called me to ask my opinion about how to respond when the media asked about it.

MY RESPONSE: You are you, you are not Donald Trump. You would not say that but your focus is to serve the people of your District. All politics are local, focus on your job.

SEE MY SHOCKED FACE: Joe Scarborough has left the GOP. So what? Who cares? Is he leaving alone or taking others along?

ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICANS ARE FOCUSED: When will our elected officials begin to work on Health Care, Budget, The Wall, Corporate Taxes and revising/simplifying the individual income tax code? Focus on the economy and jobs.

IS IT FAKE NEWS – FAKE OPINIONS OR FAKE HEADLINES

1st Amendment of the U.S. Constitution = Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

I think we can all agree that freedom of speech and the press is critical to maintaining a free and strong democracy. President Trump labels different News agencies fake news. My question; is it fake news, fake opinions or fake leading headlines.

Q: Why do so many media outlets in America have different headlines then those of other countries? Our news media claims it is under attack. Do the Main Stream Media really report, or do they treat us like ignorant children and just tell us what to think?

Let’s check a few negative headlines –

NEGATIVE HEADLINE: AMERICAN PRESS = In G20 photo, Trump couldn’t shove his way to the front and center of world leaders.
THE BACK STORY = they fail to say even in the remainder of the article that your position in the photo is predetermined based on your length in office which is why French President Emmanuel Macron was positioned to the far right of all others.

NEGATIVE HEADLINES: AMERICAN PRESS = Once Dominant, the United States Finds Itself Isolated at G-20 =&= World Leaders Move Forward on Climate Change, Without U.S. =&= G-20 shut Trump out on climate, strike deal on trade =&= G20 closes with rebuke to Trump’s climate change stance =&= The G20 proves it. Because of Donald Trump, the world no longer looks to America for leadership

The articles go on to say how Trump was left isolated as others discussed trade and prepared a statement on global warming.

THE BACK STORY = In a gallop survey of Americans in 2016 – 31% felt the economy was number one – and 3% felt that climate change was the big issue. As Trump said he is President of the U.S. and not of the world. The Paris Climate Accord was non-binding anyway so Trump refused to speak in favor of it. Regarding trade, Trump negotiated separate deals. Trump signed a Natural Gas deal with Poland and made Europe aware that U.S. NG is available to replace Russian NG. Trump also negotiated an aggressive trade with Great Britain because of Brexit.

You get the picture of the NEGATIVE headlines so now let’s check some others.

POSITIVE HEADLINES: FOREIGN PRESS = New boy Trump is sidelined in G20 family photo – because protocol puts the longest serving leaders in the middle (but he gets to bond with France’s Macron) =&= Trump wins key climate, trade concessions at stormy G20 =&= Trump defines soaring vision =&= Ignore the Trump haters. His defense of Western civilization is right =&= Donald Trump predicts ‘very powerful’ trade deal with UK.

THE BACK STORY = The EU accommodated Washington’s wish to “work closely with other countries to help them access and use fossil fuels more cleanly and efficiently.” =&= Trumps speech in Warsaw on the eve of the G20 summit was one of the finest and most consequential by a Western leader since Ronald Reagan’s “tear down this wall” etc. =&= If you doubted Trump has what it takes to make America great again listen to his brilliant Warsaw speech …. Most remarkably, he singled out for praise the unique moral virtues of Western civilization and referenced God ten times etc.

AMERICAN PRESS = what is their deal? Do you ever wonder why they no longer just report the information? In Iraq the village Elders would collect several different papers each and compare what each said about a story to determine the truth. Americans would never put that much effort into getting the truth. Americans read headlines and assume that to be the story so headlines do matter. Will Americans ever be able to trust a single source for information?

HISTORY: Remember the November 9, 2009 Ft. Hood shooting by MAJ. Nidal Milik Hassan? (NOTE: Hassan had numerous e-mails with American-born jihadist cleric Anwar al-Awlaki) As soon as I heard of the Ft. Hood attack and who the shooter was I assumed it was an Islamic Terrorist attack, not the Pentagon and the Obama administration, they labeled it (WORKPLACE VIOLENCE). Remember when the Obama administration coined the phrase (MAN CAUSED DISASTER) to replace the term for terrorism. According to our enlightened leaders the term “terrorism” was simply promoting a “politics of fear”, so we were told not to use that term any longer.

CONTROLLED FUTURE = TODAY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS STYLE BOOK WAS RELEASED: The style of the Associated Press is the gold standard for news writing. The 2017 version states not to use terms like “PRO-LIFE” instead use anti-abortion. Do not use “MIGRANT or REFUGEE” instead use people struggling to get to (name the location). Do not use “TERRORISTS or ISLAMIST” instead use the term militant.

WE NEED TO BE CAREFUL: In the beginning pollution was going to cause another “ICE AGE”. Then it changed to “GLOBAL WARMING” and Al Gore made 100’s of millions of dollars with his movie; An Inconvenient Truth. When those predictions failed the term was changed to “CLIMATE CHANGE”. In fly over country we refer to climate change as the weather. So America, be careful of the elitist and their PC correctness.

Remain true to yourself and call it what it is, whatever that is.

Sometimes I think Senator John McCain is a Media Whore

Sunday July 9, 2017 Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, the chairman of the Armed Services Committee appeared on ‘FACE THE NATION”.

Host Dickerson asks McCain a question
McCain = begins to answer and inside his answer says “I did not support him, okay? But he is the president. I’ve tried to work with him wherever I can.”
ME = WHAT?? Was this relevant?
Within the same answer McCain swerves to this “So instead, we decide on this path where we’re going to ram through a Republican proposal that requires 60 votes for a number of important provisions of it. I don’t understand it. What do we need to do now? Go back to the beginning. Introduce a bill.”
ME =I’m left scratching my head, what?

Host Dickerson asks question about Health Care because McCain went there
McCain = rambles and concludes with “they rammed it through with 60 votes. Only guess what? We don’t have 60 votes”
ME = Again what is the relevance in this remark? Nothing like a positive can do attitude.

Host Dickerson asks what happens with Health Care now
McCain = “I think my view is it’s probably going to be dead”
ME = McCain rambled on some more but the lead statement said it all. I wish McCain would stop giving TV interviews.

Host Dickerson lets go back overseas and Syria – Secretary Tillerson said ….
McCain = “Look, I agonized over voting for or against Tillerson for secretary of state.”
ME = I am so glad that McCain is on our side. Just imagine the damage McCain would do if he was against us.

Host Dickerson do you regret voting for Tillerson
McCain = “Sometimes I do.”
ME = Hey McCain you got our back??

Dickerson – you were recently in Afghanistan what did you find
McCain = “We have no strategy. And we are losing”. McCain rambles on and on then says “And, you know, we all know what the problem is. It’s in the White House.”
ME =Was that a helpful comment? Did McCain hear what Secretary Mattis said on June 13, 2017?

June 13, 2017 Secretary Mattis testified before the senate and stated that the United States is not winning in Afghanistan. During the June 13, 2017 Sen. John McCain lectured Mattis and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen Joseph Dunford about Afghanistan.
ME = So why did Senator McCain have to waste taxpayer money and go to Afghanistan? McCain has been to Afghanistan numerous times. What is McCain’s plan? After all McCain is an Annapolis graduate.

During his Face the Nation interview McCain stated = “This is just- You know, I’m preparing myself mentally to be on this show. I said, “John, you’re not going to get upset. You’re not going to get emotional.”

ME = I wonder if his time in the Hanoi Hilton has taken its toll. Some of you are old enough to remember the Rocky and Bullwinkle show. On that show there was a segment titled “Tutor Turtle” who would ask Mr. Wizard to send him some place. When TUTOR would get into trouble he would yell, “HELP ME MR. WIZARD.” I think it is time for John McCain to yell, “HELP ME MR. WIZARD”. Then we would hear those words that will save us all from another segment of Senator John McCain on a Sunday Show, “Twizzle, Twazzle, Twozzle, Twome; time for this one to come home.”

I want to hear those words because I am sick of seeing Senator John McCain appear as the main stream media Whore.

Democrat & Media Approved Talking Points = Following the G20 Summit

I was watching MSNBC for a few hours today. I now know what the approved talking points for the News Media and the Sunday show Democrats will be for the next few days.

APPROVED TALKING POINTS: President Trump did not have that many embarrassing moments. Trump was isolated by the other 19 countries. Trump was not included in refugee discussions. Trump does not agree with the Paris Climate Accord. Trump was not included in trade talks. Trump failed to lead. Trump did not have note takers in his meeting with Putin, unheard of!! (I’d call that leak control)

QUESTION: What was the natural gas agreement with Poland? The trade message was clear to the G20 that American Natural Gas is available so you do not have to buy from Russia you have a choice. What was the trade discussion with Theresa May, the leader of Great Britain? Remember Brexit happened last year, the EU is not happy, and on April 22, 2016 President Obama said if England leaves the EU it would place England at the back of the trade Queue. President Trump wanted to assure Britain they were not at the back of the queue. I think that is trade discussion 101. Where are the refugees from? I think the majority of the refugees are from Syria and Iraq. Who did Trump meet with that can help affect the area the refugees are from? Trump met with Putin. What was the meeting with China, S. Korea & Japan about? I think Trump discussed options regarding N. Korea but also shared just how much more Tom Foolery by Kim Jung-un will be tolerated.

TRUMP KEPT AMERICA FIRST: I think the Media and Democrats are frustrated because Trump did lead and they would have preferred he follow the other lemmings.

HISTORY AND BACKGROUND: What is Potsdam and why was that important? Potsdam was an arranged meeting following the February Yalta conference between The Big Three. Following peace in Germany the Big Three in Feb 1945 were Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The location for the meeting was Potsdam, Germany with the same three countries, but President Harry Truman was there for the United States and Prime Minister Clement Attlee replaced Churchill. The purpose of the meeting was to determine how post WWII Europe was to look.

Secretary Henry Kissinger once said (I paraphrase) that treaties always set the chess pieces for the next war. Potsdam resulted in two very large alliances. The eastern portion behind the Iron Curtain was controlled by the Soviet Union. To the West the Democratic nations of Europe along with the United States formed NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).

TRUMP AND RUSSIA: President Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin met for over two hours at the 2017 G20 conference in Hamburg, Germany. First Lady Melania Trump attempted to break up the meeting after one hour because it had gone over the scheduled time.

Prior to 2008 Putin (Russia) was not a big player on the world stage. February 2014, Russia moves into the Ukraine and essentially annexes Crimea while NATO and the US stood by. Prior to the February incursion Russia used oil and natural gas as a bargaining chip with Europe. September 2015, Russia conducts its first air strike in Syria. Since that initial military incursion Russia has established a naval base at Tartus and signed a 49 year lease for an airbase at Khmeimim, Syria. Earlier this year, U.S. Commanders announced that Russia was providing arms to the Taliban in Afghanistan, and of course there is N. Korea and the U.S. elections. Two hours does not seem like enough time between the leaders of the two most powerful countries in the world.

WHAT GOT SYRIA TO THIS POINT: Syria and ISIS is the real issue between the US & Russia. All of the other stuff is bargaining chips for both. The Crimea gave Russia the Black Sea but Russia wants the warm water port in the Mediterranean that Syria offers. Having an airbase is also important for Russia because it allows them to be able to project power outside of Russia. Trump and Putin will discuss Afghanistan and N. Korea, and in my opinion reach an understanding.

The real discussion will be Syria and how to divide (stabilize) it going forward. According to our media and the world Bashar al-Assad was never bad until the Obama administration declared that he had to go. Prior to this Assad protected Jews, Christians and non-Jihadist Muslims living in Syria. As the situation in Syria deteriorated Hillary Clinton was one of the loudest voices calling for arms to Syrian rebels. Other countries also sent weapons and in August 2011 President Obama stated “Assad must go”, so the media climbed onto the Assad is bad bandwagon.

SYRIA THE MODERN POTSDAM: I have said before killing Muslim Jihadist is like taking a hammer and hitting a square of jello, it splatters everywhere. The ideology survives and will just pop up in another location. What is important to American/World interest is stability in the Middle East. Obama created a mess, and now Trump along with Putin will try to stabilize this situation. I believe that out of this 2 hour meeting at the G20, Trump and Putin will establish borders inside Syria. Bashar al-Assad and Russia in one region and US backed forces in another. I feel that they will establish a DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) similar to the DMZ in Korea separating the two forces in Syria along with a restricted fly zone. Ultimately a means to repatriate Muslims dislodged from Iraq and Syria currently living in Europe back to the region.

END STATE: Peace and stability in the region. Russia will maintain a permanent presence in Syria and a presence to the Mediterranean from its Naval Base at Tartus, Syria. The US will negotiate a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with Iraq and will maintain American troops in Iraq for years to come. Russia will back out of Afghanistan. Trump and Putin will discuss potential solutions to the global war on Muslim Jihadist because Russia also has had issues with Muslim Jihadist. N. Korea will be addressed in my other posts regarding N. Korea.

While in the military I was honored to spend a year in South Korea. I learned to love the Korean people who are extremely hardworking and very friendly. While in Korea I taught English at an orphanage that our unit the 3/81st FA sponsored. I would never want harm to befall the wonderful people of Korea.

So where is the world today? The N. Korean can was kicked down the road by Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama – not their fault as they tried to negotiate in good faith with partners from the region like Russia, China, Japan and S. Korea. Certainly S. Korea, which is just South of the 38th parallel, has reason to be concerned. The distance from Pyongyang, N. Korea, to Tokyo Japan, is 800 miles, and at the closest point between Japan and N. Korea the distance is approximately 600 miles. As a comparison, the distance between Green Bay, Wisconsin, and Lincoln, Nebraska, is just over 600 miles.

Russia and China recently chastised the US and S. Korean war games and issued a statement that there should be no more war games. S. Korea and Japan have been allied with the United States since the end of WWII and the 1953 cease fire in Korea. The United States has troops stationed in each of these countries and does have long- term treaties with each of these countries.

A SHORT HISTORY
THE CARROT: The Soviet Union crumbled in the early 1990s so N. Koreans had to figure out a way to remain sovereign. The path chosen was to become provocative by developing missiles and nuclear weapons. The Clinton administration’s response was a carrot. That carrot was for N. Korea to give up nuclear tests and the US would provide oil, phasing-out of economic sanctions as well as assistance to N. Korea to develop light water reactors.

October 18, 1994, President Clinton announced that the “AGREED FRAMEWORK” was good for America and our allies. The agreement was never ratified by Congress but was essentially an executive order similar to the agreement President Obama made with Iran. Because of increasing suspicions that N. Korea was violating the agreement Congress refused to fund the agreement which dissolved in 2003.

THE STICK: President Bush labeled N. Korea part of the Axis of Evil. The Bush administration demanded complete verifiable nuclear disarmament and a reduction of conventional weapons as a condition prior to any negotiations.

In 2003 N. Korea withdrew from the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) and simultaneously announced that they possessed nuclear weapons proving the suspicions of the world. Bush initiated the Six-Party Talks.

Bush did not want to make the carrot mistake of Clinton so remained steadfast in the demand to disarm before talks. N. Korea withdrew from the talks in 2009. The result was failure to achieve any type of an agreement and a failure to achieve any denuclearization of N. Korea. We learned that N. Korea will not yield to pressure.

STRATEGIC PATIENCE: In his inaugural speech President Obama offered negotiations and N. Korea answered with more tests. The condition outlined for patience was denuclearization as a precondition. Various negotiations occurred but failed. The UN placed sanctions and China was asked to exert pressure but demonstrated a reluctance to do so.

S. Korea appeared to be happier with Obama than Bush but the rocket tests and nuclear tests early in 2017 prove that N. Korea has not stopped or slowed its goal to develop long-range weapons as well as smaller tactical nukes. The reality is that strategic patience is no more successful than the carrot or the stick.

Some argue that the Obama policy is the best long-term because regime change might occur. But this has not happened since the original leader of the DPKR (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) launched the Korean War in 1950. That leader was Kim Il-sung followed by his son Kim Jong-Il and now his grandson Kim Jong-Un.

FRAMING THE CONVERSATION: I will attempt to frame the discussion using the term D.I.M.E. (Diplomacy Information Military Economics)

DIPLOMACY: There is overt and covert diplomacy. N. Korea is described as hermit- like, isolated or cloistered, take your pick but difficult to know what is truly going on inside. Kim Jong-Un has not left the DPKR since coming to power and may never leave. First he is not welcome in most countries, and most importantly if he were to leave there is a great chance for an overthrow of his government. This makes diplomacy difficult and hope for a regime change unrealistic.
INFORMATION: There is overt and covert information used in the process. Because of the DPKR’s hermit crablike existence information in and out can be more difficult, but not impossible.
MILITARY: Overt and covert are two types of military power. Everyone knows that the 38th parallel is the cease fire boundary between N. Korea (DPKR) and S. Korea. Along the 38th DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) there are lots and lots of weapons aimed in both directions. Most from North pointed to the South with Seoul, S. Korea, only 35 miles from the DMZ, or the distance between Baltimore Maryland and Washington D.C. The DMZ is 250 miles long and 4 miles wide or about the distance from Wausau, Wisconsin, to Chicago.
ECONOMIC: Again overt and covert is employed as a means to encourage or deter. An excellent example of overt economic power as a diplomatic tool or a means to and end is the agreement President Trump signed with Poland July 6, 2017, for natural gas. This agreement is to reduce Poland’s dependency on Russia for natural gas which in turn reduces the leverage Russia has over that country.

There is much more, but I will stop here and continue with more detail in another post. This is the end of #1 with #2 to follow shortly. As always, I encourage you to share in hopes of encouraging dialog and understanding. In #2 I will add more detail and focus on DIME. I know that there are many who understand this process and normally this would be a collaborative process, but I am doing this solo. Enjoy and pray for peace.

Have you heard that President Trump stated that it is President Obama’s fault that the Syrians were gassed?

What was your reaction when you heard Trump said that? What was the reaction or response to that statement by the media outlet you got that information from? TV? Radio? Print? Social media?
MY RESPONSE: I agree with president Trump. President Barrack Obama owns Syria and the current situation in the region.

TIMELINE:
-June 2009 Obama give his famous Arab Spring speech in Cairo Egypt
(NOTE: Arab commentator commentated on the speech: that was sweet meat just like honey – let’s see what the actions are?)
-September 2009 President Obama informs Poland and NATO that he was removing the US Anti-Ballistic Missile system (Russia did not like it – we got nothing from Russia) Demonstrates weakness to Russia.
-2010 The Ukraine and the Crimea voted to join NATO (Russia did not like that)
-January 2011 Obama pulled American forces out of Iraq because he refused to negotiate a Status Of Forces Agreement (SOFA). (NOTE THIS LEFT A VACUME) ISIS filled that vacuum and Iran also filled a vacuum under the guise of helping. Remember Obama claimed ISIS was the JV team.
-March 2011 Obama orders air strikes in Libya – Obama made it clear that regime change was needed. Mummar Gaddafi was deposed and later killed by his people. A vacuum was created filled by numerous Muslim groups.
(NOTE: Many of the hand held anti-aircraft weapons that Kaddafi had are rumored to have been sent to Syria)
-August 2011 Obama states that Bashar al-Assad must step aside (Regime change)
-September 2011 Obama supports the overthrow of Mubarak – (Regime change)
-June 2012 The Muslim Brotherhood and Mohamed Morsi as President come to power in Egypt to fill that vacuum.
(NOTE: Saudi Arabia was very alarmed at the speed of which this US supported over throw took place Q: How trusting of the US do you think Saudi Arabia was at that time – could they be next?)
-August 2012 Obama’s famous RED LINE threat to as-Assad – if chemical weapons are ever used
-November 2012 Morsi changes the constitution and declares that he has unlimited power
-August 2013 Obama begins negotiations with Putin to have Bashar al-Assad turn over all chemical weapons to Russia for destruction.
-August 2014 Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry exclaimed that 100% of all chemical weapons were removed from Syria (Jan -2017 Susan Rice states on NPR the Obama Administration Got Assad to voluntarily remove 100% of his chemicals and that is verifiable)
-February 2014 Winter Olympics’ end in Sochi and Putin no longer needs to be well behaved on the world stage
-March of 2014 Russia annexes Ukraine and the Crimea
-January 2015 (5) five Obama administration operatives arrive in Tel Aviv to actively work to defeat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the March 2015 elections (regime change)
September 2015 Russian Parliament approves sending aircraft in support of the Assad regime. Russian aircraft staged at Iranian airfield.

-NOTE: all of these events have made it much more difficult in Syria from what it would have been had a SOFA been negotiated with Iraq and US Forces remained in Iraq instead of being removed in Jan 2011. During the Obama’s administration he and members of his administration advocated for REGIEME CHANGE and his lack of leadership created a VACUM in these areas. With that in mind why would any other country in the region trust the Obama administration? REMEMBER THE Arab Commentator: that was sweet meat just like honey – let’s see what the actions are?) Adding to the confusion is Obama’s RED LINE – it was crossed (nothing happened). Russia had not been involved in the Middle East for decades but Obama’s weakness invited the stronger Putin in to fill the vacuum.

-WHAT WERE OBAMA’S ACTIONS IN THIS REGION: Advocated for and supported (4) four regime changes (I will not bring up Yemen) – pulled out of Iraq and left a vacuum – made great speeches but was afraid to make any decision – so leaders like Putin and the Mullahs of Iran made decisions. Obama owns the current status of this region because after 8 years of his policy he has created what is reality on the ground today.

-WHAT HAS TRUMP DONE: Trump is in office less than 80 days and in the last three weeks Trump has met with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and last week the President of Iraq. On 4 April he met with President Abdel Fattah al-Assisi of Egypt and yesterday King Abdullah of Jordon.
What I think. I have mentioned this before but let’s look at this using the acronym DIME (Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic)

-DIPLOMACY: #1 DEFEAT ISIS. United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley made an excellent speech and stared down the Russian Ambassador and clearly shined the spotlight of blame on Russia. I believe that all of these meetings with leaders in the region have not been by accident. Trump will take this to the UN but has already negotiated partial deals with countries in the region. I believe a no fly zone will be established and financially supported primarily by Saudi Arabia and other countries. This no fly zone will bump up against Turkey and Iraq. So where will Assad go when he leaves Syria after the defeat of ISIS – my guess would be either England or Russia. Perhaps a distant relative will appear that can become King of what is left of Syria.

-Information: Overt – I believe that more and more countries will come out and condemn Assad publically. Russia will pull back support but Russia will want to keep its navy and air base in Syria so they have access to the Mediterranean.

-INFORMATION: Covert – Iran will be the fly in the ointment. Iraq will agree to have US troops based in Iraq and a new SOFA will be negotiated. (NOTE: Iraq will want the US forces in country because even the Shia in Iraq do not want to be ruled by Iran) Turkey is also a fly in the ointment because they do not trust the Kurds in Northern Iraq. Turkey may demand release of the Mullah that is in the US they claim planned the overthrow. Turkey might also make demands regarding entry into the EU. Currently Turkey is an associate member but not a full member. The Soviet Union will be told to remove the sophisticated Air Defense systems from Syria. What is in it for Russia to agree to back away?

-Military: Overt – THE FIRST PRIORITY WILL BE TO KILL ISIS AND DEFEAT THEM IN THAT AREA. Remember these radical Muslim groups are like taking a square of jello and smashing it with a hammer. Defeating them in Syria does not defeat the concept or Caliphate that was established in the 7th Century by the first Bakr al-Baghdadi who lived in Damascus Syria.

The US will provide and share intelligence with countries that send military forces. The initial US military will number less than 30,000 and the bulk of the actual combat forces will be from other countries. The US will be the primary logistic supporter of these operations as well as provide Command and Control. I think that all of the countries in the region will send forces and assist to establish the no fly zone and to defeat ISIS. A few NATO countries will also participate as well as Japan and S. Korea who will also assist in some manner. Remember I said that Iran is the fly in the ointment = soon one of their gun boats that they send to harass our ships will be blown from the water – hopefully no one gets killed. (NOTE: Just like Reagan bombing Gaddafi in 1986 this action will have a ripple affect felt by Iran – Russia – China & N. Korea (N. Korea might be tone deaf to its detriment). Russia will keep is navy base but I do not think that it will be allowed to keep its air base. If/when Syria fly’s its airplanes its air bases will be bombed. Not by airplanes due to the sophisticated air defense provided by Russia but Cruise Missiles. Cruise missiles have a range of over 1,000 miles flying below radar and are accurate at that range to within a few feet. The six Syrian air bases & support facilities will all be taken out in a single strike unannounced.

-MILITARY: Covert – I believe that a contract to upgrade the military of Egypt – Jordan – Saudi Arabia will be a negotiated part of their support and perhaps Turkey as well.

-Economic: Overt – Saudi Arabia will be allowed to finish its pipe line to Europe and some sanctions will be lifted from Russia. King Abdullah of Jordon will be helped economically because of the financial burden Jordan has faced with the refugees from Syria. Iraq will be helped to rebuild its infrastructure that ISIS destroyed. This financial assistance will come from Saudi Arabia because the area of Iraq ISIS occupied is Sunni Muslim.

-Covert – Iran will be told to get out or Sanctions will be imposed and assets frozen.  We will have Iran sandwiched between Afghanistan and Iraq.

Just thought to share this. Certainly I could go into more detail but I kept it simple just to get the gist of my thinking across. I look forward to comments and debate.