N. Korea Part #3
This will be my final post in this series regarding N. Korea. In part #1 – I gave a brief history and described the approach of three previous U.S. presidents (Clinton – Bush – Obama). In part #2 – I outlined the U.S. approach to diplomacy using the very simplified approach D.I.M.E. (Diplomacy – Information – Military – Economics).
HOW TO VIEW DIPLOMACY: We have allies around the world but please do not confuse allies as a synonym for friend. Allies enter into formal agreements such as NATO or they simply have a mutual or a shared interest. We spy on our allies and they spy on us. It is embarrassing when we get caught like the time President Barack Obama wiretapped German Chancellor Angela Merkel In 2010. Israel has been caught spying on the U.S. etc. etc.
As kids, we played the board game “RISK” where the object was to put your forces up against opposing forces to capture all the regions and countries of the world. Sometimes you would form an alliance with another player in order to defeat a much stronger opponent. But once that strong opponent was weakened or destroyed you would attack the player you formed an alliance with. It is the same in the world. The United States forms alliances where we have mutual or shared interests.
END STATE:
N. KOREA: The end state for the DPKR is simple. 1 – Kim Jung-Un remains in power 2 – N. Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons 3 – N. Korea continues to develop I.C.B.M. (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) (NOTE: N. Korea must continue on this path because they can export the technology or sell to other countries and non-state actors such as Islamic Terrorists & Iran.) If you look at the history of N. Korea they have always pushed the envelope just like the little Toady on the school yard. But for N. Korea being provocative on the world stage has gotten N. Korea free stuff like food and oil so the DPKR assumes that it is business as usual.
Remember, N. Korea loves being the shrimp amongst whales or playing the part of the mouse that roared.
UNITED STATES: The end state for the United States is the dismantling of N. Korea’s nuclear program, the dismantling of their ICBM program, plus the means to verify that this is done. Russia & China will present a solution on the world stage that promises that N. Korea will stop all research.
(NOTE: In 1994 President Clinton announced THE AGREED FRAMEWORK which was the agreement that had N. Korea promising to stop nuclear research and the U.S. promised to ease sanctions, provide oil and assist N. Korea with construction of a light water reactor. The Yongbyon nuclear facility was never dismantled and the agreement by Clinton was just like the agreement between President Obama and Iran. It was a treaty never ratified by congress, congress was not obligated to follow it.)
Some push for regime change but who knows what the world would get to replace Kim Jung-Un. Ultimately it would be best for the world if N. Korea joined the rest of the world as a contributing productive member instead of a threatening provocative menacing Little Toady. Some will push for unification of North and South Korea. Unification might happen at some point in the future but should not be a critical element at this time. Stability in the region is the end state. (NOTE: my opinion not official policy)
TO BE CLEAR: N. Korea must stop nuclear and ICBM research and the systems dismantled with follow-up verification of the dismantling. N. Korea knows that the world does not have the will and is betting that the U.S. will not have the will to take action.
DIPLOMACY: The U.S. will work to establish an alliance with China and Russia because both are critical to the U.S. end state. (REMEMBER: Politics makes strange bedfellows.) Both Russia and China have their own interests and dare I say cannot be trusted, but we need to find common ground, if we can. The U.S., S. Korea and Japan need to work within the United Nations to pass sanctions and an authorization of force resolution. But China and Russia each can veto any proposal. With that said the U.S. and its allies will work to impose UN language which supports the end state desired by the U.S. and its allies.
DIPLOMACY FAILS:
N. KOREA: The DPKR continues to test ICBM’s and nuclear devices. N. Korea continues its provocative behavior because that has gotten N. Korea to this point. This provocative behavior has been successful since THE AGREED FRAMEWORK.
UNITED STATES: After Diplomacy has failed can President Trump authorize force or does Congress need to authorize it? Remember the most recent debate when President Obama launched strikes against Libya (U.S. CONSTITUTION: Only Congress can declare war but the President can permit the use of military force.)
SATELLITE: The U.S. will use its satellites to be alerted to any troop movement and activity at missile and nuke locations in N. Korea. When at some point it is determined that N. Korea will not cease and desist and that neither China nor Russia can or will help America must strike.
THE STRIKE: Remember that intelligence is always a best guess. There are always gaps and that the enemy gets a vote so there are many unknowns. The U.S. would begin with a deep strike utilizing stealth fighters and bombers. N. Korea does have a dense interlocking anti-air network but it is obsolete. On the heels of stealth airplanes, the U.S. would use Tomahawk land cruise missiles to further damage targets, the Ohio-class cruise missile submarines and the 7th Fleet which is stationed in Japan and S. Korea. Not counting the Tomahawk missiles, the navy can launch 900 missiles at selected targets. For the nuclear facilities, the U.S. 509th Bomb wing from the Whitman Air Base in Missouri has a continuous presence in the region. These bombers would drop the M.O.P (Massive Ordinance Penetrators) which is a 30,000 pound bomb. I will stop here as you get the picture of first strike activity in the first few hours.
U.S. TARGETS: During the initial targeting process the United States and its allies would target N. Korean Missile, nuclear facilities, communication facilities, transportation (train – road), troop concentrations along DMZ, air bases and hardened FA positions within range of Seoul. There will be different targets and priorities. Mobile missiles will be critical because we must assume that the DPKR has a nuke on a missile and the danger of an air-burst causing a EMP needs to be prevented. (NEMP: nuclear electromagnetic pulse which causes surges in electricity resulting in large area blackouts. Military electrical equipment is hardened against this but civilian equipment is not.)
DEFENSE: Between the U.S. and S. Korea there are many defensive systems. One of the best defenses is offensive weapons and the superbly trained troops both countries have.
DPKR RESPONSE: N. Korea is powerless to stop a strike but they can and will respond. The first kinetic response will be the FA (Field Artillery) which is already positioned inside cement bunkers. The majority of DPKR artillery can only range the Northern most suburbs of Seoul S. Korea. Based on recent DPKR live artillery firing we know that they have a 25% failure rate. The N. Korean air force has approximately 1,300 planes. Approximately 200 are newer but the remaining are legacy places from the 50’s & 60’s to include bi-wing planes. The U.S., S. Korea, Japan and other partners will remove the N. Korean air force in a day or two.
GROUND FORCE: N. Korea has 6,445,000 troops for its army, air force and navy. 945,000 are active and the rest are reserves. Moving troops and supplies will be a problem. DPKR has 5,000 tanks but the majority are 1960’s versions or older.
N. Korea will either attack military targets or civilian targets. My guess is civilian targets to get the media to report heart string stories and cause the world to call for a halt to the conflict.
MISSILES: After the initial strike the U.S. and its allies must watch for mobile missile systems that can deliver a nuke (EMP) or chemical and biological weapons. If the DPKR can, it will launch an ICBM towards the United States. The majority of the missiles will all be aimed at civilian centers in S. Korea, Japan and the United States.
CHINA – RUSSIA: I believe that Trump has assured China and Russia that the U.S. is not after regime change. If/when the U.S. was to strike we would not push to far north of the DMZ and pull back to the DMZ once hostilities cease. Russia and China would post troops along their border with N. Korea to stop refugees at the border. Refugee camps would also be set up to support refugees. China and Russia would take to the floor of the UN demanding a stop to the conflict. Both would make statements condemning the action.
CONCLUSION: I could (should) go into more detail but you get the gist of this discussion. Diplomacy is the preferred method but as Pyongyang perfects the ICBM and the delivery system that represents (EMP – chemical – biological) do you want to wait and hope that Kim Jung-Un will never use one?
UNKNOWN: Just like President Ronald Reagan was different from previous presidents Trump is different. Time will tell which scenario becomes reality. Whatever the decision it will not be easy. Do we ally with Russia and China and trust them completely? If it is evident the alliance is not working, does the United States lead a preemptive strike?
I apologize for the simplicity and length but this is a difficult issue. There is much more detail that can and should be put into these three posts on N. Korea. My hope is that these three posts arm you with enough knowledge and understanding to assist as you listen to the news.
Pray for cool heads and peace.