HISTORY AND BACKGROUND: What is Potsdam and why was that important? Potsdam was an arranged meeting following the February Yalta conference between The Big Three. Following peace in Germany the Big Three in Feb 1945 were Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The location for the meeting was Potsdam, Germany with the same three countries, but President Harry Truman was there for the United States and Prime Minister Clement Attlee replaced Churchill. The purpose of the meeting was to determine how post WWII Europe was to look.
Secretary Henry Kissinger once said (I paraphrase) that treaties always set the chess pieces for the next war. Potsdam resulted in two very large alliances. The eastern portion behind the Iron Curtain was controlled by the Soviet Union. To the West the Democratic nations of Europe along with the United States formed NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).
TRUMP AND RUSSIA: President Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin met for over two hours at the 2017 G20 conference in Hamburg, Germany. First Lady Melania Trump attempted to break up the meeting after one hour because it had gone over the scheduled time.
Prior to 2008 Putin (Russia) was not a big player on the world stage. February 2014, Russia moves into the Ukraine and essentially annexes Crimea while NATO and the US stood by. Prior to the February incursion Russia used oil and natural gas as a bargaining chip with Europe. September 2015, Russia conducts its first air strike in Syria. Since that initial military incursion Russia has established a naval base at Tartus and signed a 49 year lease for an airbase at Khmeimim, Syria. Earlier this year, U.S. Commanders announced that Russia was providing arms to the Taliban in Afghanistan, and of course there is N. Korea and the U.S. elections. Two hours does not seem like enough time between the leaders of the two most powerful countries in the world.
WHAT GOT SYRIA TO THIS POINT: Syria and ISIS is the real issue between the US & Russia. All of the other stuff is bargaining chips for both. The Crimea gave Russia the Black Sea but Russia wants the warm water port in the Mediterranean that Syria offers. Having an airbase is also important for Russia because it allows them to be able to project power outside of Russia. Trump and Putin will discuss Afghanistan and N. Korea, and in my opinion reach an understanding.
The real discussion will be Syria and how to divide (stabilize) it going forward. According to our media and the world Bashar al-Assad was never bad until the Obama administration declared that he had to go. Prior to this Assad protected Jews, Christians and non-Jihadist Muslims living in Syria. As the situation in Syria deteriorated Hillary Clinton was one of the loudest voices calling for arms to Syrian rebels. Other countries also sent weapons and in August 2011 President Obama stated “Assad must go”, so the media climbed onto the Assad is bad bandwagon.
SYRIA THE MODERN POTSDAM: I have said before killing Muslim Jihadist is like taking a hammer and hitting a square of jello, it splatters everywhere. The ideology survives and will just pop up in another location. What is important to American/World interest is stability in the Middle East. Obama created a mess, and now Trump along with Putin will try to stabilize this situation. I believe that out of this 2 hour meeting at the G20, Trump and Putin will establish borders inside Syria. Bashar al-Assad and Russia in one region and US backed forces in another. I feel that they will establish a DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) similar to the DMZ in Korea separating the two forces in Syria along with a restricted fly zone. Ultimately a means to repatriate Muslims dislodged from Iraq and Syria currently living in Europe back to the region.
END STATE: Peace and stability in the region. Russia will maintain a permanent presence in Syria and a presence to the Mediterranean from its Naval Base at Tartus, Syria. The US will negotiate a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with Iraq and will maintain American troops in Iraq for years to come. Russia will back out of Afghanistan. Trump and Putin will discuss potential solutions to the global war on Muslim Jihadist because Russia also has had issues with Muslim Jihadist. N. Korea will be addressed in my other posts regarding N. Korea.