While in the military I was honored to spend a year in South Korea. I learned to love the Korean people who are extremely hardworking and very friendly. While in Korea I taught English at an orphanage that our unit the 3/81st FA sponsored. I would never want harm to befall the wonderful people of Korea.
So where is the world today? The N. Korean can was kicked down the road by Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama – not their fault as they tried to negotiate in good faith with partners from the region like Russia, China, Japan and S. Korea. Certainly S. Korea, which is just South of the 38th parallel, has reason to be concerned. The distance from Pyongyang, N. Korea, to Tokyo Japan, is 800 miles, and at the closest point between Japan and N. Korea the distance is approximately 600 miles. As a comparison, the distance between Green Bay, Wisconsin, and Lincoln, Nebraska, is just over 600 miles.
Russia and China recently chastised the US and S. Korean war games and issued a statement that there should be no more war games. S. Korea and Japan have been allied with the United States since the end of WWII and the 1953 cease fire in Korea. The United States has troops stationed in each of these countries and does have long- term treaties with each of these countries.
A SHORT HISTORY
THE CARROT: The Soviet Union crumbled in the early 1990s so N. Koreans had to figure out a way to remain sovereign. The path chosen was to become provocative by developing missiles and nuclear weapons. The Clinton administration’s response was a carrot. That carrot was for N. Korea to give up nuclear tests and the US would provide oil, phasing-out of economic sanctions as well as assistance to N. Korea to develop light water reactors.
October 18, 1994, President Clinton announced that the “AGREED FRAMEWORK” was good for America and our allies. The agreement was never ratified by Congress but was essentially an executive order similar to the agreement President Obama made with Iran. Because of increasing suspicions that N. Korea was violating the agreement Congress refused to fund the agreement which dissolved in 2003.
THE STICK: President Bush labeled N. Korea part of the Axis of Evil. The Bush administration demanded complete verifiable nuclear disarmament and a reduction of conventional weapons as a condition prior to any negotiations.
In 2003 N. Korea withdrew from the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) and simultaneously announced that they possessed nuclear weapons proving the suspicions of the world. Bush initiated the Six-Party Talks.
Bush did not want to make the carrot mistake of Clinton so remained steadfast in the demand to disarm before talks. N. Korea withdrew from the talks in 2009. The result was failure to achieve any type of an agreement and a failure to achieve any denuclearization of N. Korea. We learned that N. Korea will not yield to pressure.
STRATEGIC PATIENCE: In his inaugural speech President Obama offered negotiations and N. Korea answered with more tests. The condition outlined for patience was denuclearization as a precondition. Various negotiations occurred but failed. The UN placed sanctions and China was asked to exert pressure but demonstrated a reluctance to do so.
S. Korea appeared to be happier with Obama than Bush but the rocket tests and nuclear tests early in 2017 prove that N. Korea has not stopped or slowed its goal to develop long-range weapons as well as smaller tactical nukes. The reality is that strategic patience is no more successful than the carrot or the stick.
Some argue that the Obama policy is the best long-term because regime change might occur. But this has not happened since the original leader of the DPKR (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) launched the Korean War in 1950. That leader was Kim Il-sung followed by his son Kim Jong-Il and now his grandson Kim Jong-Un.
FRAMING THE CONVERSATION: I will attempt to frame the discussion using the term D.I.M.E. (Diplomacy Information Military Economics)
DIPLOMACY: There is overt and covert diplomacy. N. Korea is described as hermit- like, isolated or cloistered, take your pick but difficult to know what is truly going on inside. Kim Jong-Un has not left the DPKR since coming to power and may never leave. First he is not welcome in most countries, and most importantly if he were to leave there is a great chance for an overthrow of his government. This makes diplomacy difficult and hope for a regime change unrealistic.
INFORMATION: There is overt and covert information used in the process. Because of the DPKR’s hermit crablike existence information in and out can be more difficult, but not impossible.
MILITARY: Overt and covert are two types of military power. Everyone knows that the 38th parallel is the cease fire boundary between N. Korea (DPKR) and S. Korea. Along the 38th DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) there are lots and lots of weapons aimed in both directions. Most from North pointed to the South with Seoul, S. Korea, only 35 miles from the DMZ, or the distance between Baltimore Maryland and Washington D.C. The DMZ is 250 miles long and 4 miles wide or about the distance from Wausau, Wisconsin, to Chicago.
ECONOMIC: Again overt and covert is employed as a means to encourage or deter. An excellent example of overt economic power as a diplomatic tool or a means to and end is the agreement President Trump signed with Poland July 6, 2017, for natural gas. This agreement is to reduce Poland’s dependency on Russia for natural gas which in turn reduces the leverage Russia has over that country.
There is much more, but I will stop here and continue with more detail in another post. This is the end of #1 with #2 to follow shortly. As always, I encourage you to share in hopes of encouraging dialog and understanding. In #2 I will add more detail and focus on DIME. I know that there are many who understand this process and normally this would be a collaborative process, but I am doing this solo. Enjoy and pray for peace.