Have you heard that President Trump stated that it is President Obama’s fault that the Syrians were gassed?
What was your reaction when you heard Trump said that? What was the reaction or response to that statement by the media outlet you got that information from? TV? Radio? Print? Social media?
MY RESPONSE: I agree with president Trump. President Barrack Obama owns Syria and the current situation in the region.
TIMELINE:
-June 2009 Obama give his famous Arab Spring speech in Cairo Egypt
(NOTE: Arab commentator commentated on the speech: that was sweet meat just like honey – let’s see what the actions are?)
-September 2009 President Obama informs Poland and NATO that he was removing the US Anti-Ballistic Missile system (Russia did not like it – we got nothing from Russia) Demonstrates weakness to Russia.
-2010 The Ukraine and the Crimea voted to join NATO (Russia did not like that)
-January 2011 Obama pulled American forces out of Iraq because he refused to negotiate a Status Of Forces Agreement (SOFA). (NOTE THIS LEFT A VACUME) ISIS filled that vacuum and Iran also filled a vacuum under the guise of helping. Remember Obama claimed ISIS was the JV team.
-March 2011 Obama orders air strikes in Libya – Obama made it clear that regime change was needed. Mummar Gaddafi was deposed and later killed by his people. A vacuum was created filled by numerous Muslim groups.
(NOTE: Many of the hand held anti-aircraft weapons that Kaddafi had are rumored to have been sent to Syria)
-August 2011 Obama states that Bashar al-Assad must step aside (Regime change)
-September 2011 Obama supports the overthrow of Mubarak – (Regime change)
-June 2012 The Muslim Brotherhood and Mohamed Morsi as President come to power in Egypt to fill that vacuum.
(NOTE: Saudi Arabia was very alarmed at the speed of which this US supported over throw took place Q: How trusting of the US do you think Saudi Arabia was at that time – could they be next?)
-August 2012 Obama’s famous RED LINE threat to as-Assad – if chemical weapons are ever used
-November 2012 Morsi changes the constitution and declares that he has unlimited power
-August 2013 Obama begins negotiations with Putin to have Bashar al-Assad turn over all chemical weapons to Russia for destruction.
-August 2014 Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry exclaimed that 100% of all chemical weapons were removed from Syria (Jan -2017 Susan Rice states on NPR the Obama Administration Got Assad to voluntarily remove 100% of his chemicals and that is verifiable)
-February 2014 Winter Olympics’ end in Sochi and Putin no longer needs to be well behaved on the world stage
-March of 2014 Russia annexes Ukraine and the Crimea
-January 2015 (5) five Obama administration operatives arrive in Tel Aviv to actively work to defeat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the March 2015 elections (regime change)
September 2015 Russian Parliament approves sending aircraft in support of the Assad regime. Russian aircraft staged at Iranian airfield.
-NOTE: all of these events have made it much more difficult in Syria from what it would have been had a SOFA been negotiated with Iraq and US Forces remained in Iraq instead of being removed in Jan 2011. During the Obama’s administration he and members of his administration advocated for REGIEME CHANGE and his lack of leadership created a VACUM in these areas. With that in mind why would any other country in the region trust the Obama administration? REMEMBER THE Arab Commentator: that was sweet meat just like honey – let’s see what the actions are?) Adding to the confusion is Obama’s RED LINE – it was crossed (nothing happened). Russia had not been involved in the Middle East for decades but Obama’s weakness invited the stronger Putin in to fill the vacuum.
-WHAT WERE OBAMA’S ACTIONS IN THIS REGION: Advocated for and supported (4) four regime changes (I will not bring up Yemen) – pulled out of Iraq and left a vacuum – made great speeches but was afraid to make any decision – so leaders like Putin and the Mullahs of Iran made decisions. Obama owns the current status of this region because after 8 years of his policy he has created what is reality on the ground today.
-WHAT HAS TRUMP DONE: Trump is in office less than 80 days and in the last three weeks Trump has met with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and last week the President of Iraq. On 4 April he met with President Abdel Fattah al-Assisi of Egypt and yesterday King Abdullah of Jordon.
What I think. I have mentioned this before but let’s look at this using the acronym DIME (Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic)
-DIPLOMACY: #1 DEFEAT ISIS. United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley made an excellent speech and stared down the Russian Ambassador and clearly shined the spotlight of blame on Russia. I believe that all of these meetings with leaders in the region have not been by accident. Trump will take this to the UN but has already negotiated partial deals with countries in the region. I believe a no fly zone will be established and financially supported primarily by Saudi Arabia and other countries. This no fly zone will bump up against Turkey and Iraq. So where will Assad go when he leaves Syria after the defeat of ISIS – my guess would be either England or Russia. Perhaps a distant relative will appear that can become King of what is left of Syria.
-Information: Overt – I believe that more and more countries will come out and condemn Assad publically. Russia will pull back support but Russia will want to keep its navy and air base in Syria so they have access to the Mediterranean.
-INFORMATION: Covert – Iran will be the fly in the ointment. Iraq will agree to have US troops based in Iraq and a new SOFA will be negotiated. (NOTE: Iraq will want the US forces in country because even the Shia in Iraq do not want to be ruled by Iran) Turkey is also a fly in the ointment because they do not trust the Kurds in Northern Iraq. Turkey may demand release of the Mullah that is in the US they claim planned the overthrow. Turkey might also make demands regarding entry into the EU. Currently Turkey is an associate member but not a full member. The Soviet Union will be told to remove the sophisticated Air Defense systems from Syria. What is in it for Russia to agree to back away?
-Military: Overt – THE FIRST PRIORITY WILL BE TO KILL ISIS AND DEFEAT THEM IN THAT AREA. Remember these radical Muslim groups are like taking a square of jello and smashing it with a hammer. Defeating them in Syria does not defeat the concept or Caliphate that was established in the 7th Century by the first Bakr al-Baghdadi who lived in Damascus Syria.
The US will provide and share intelligence with countries that send military forces. The initial US military will number less than 30,000 and the bulk of the actual combat forces will be from other countries. The US will be the primary logistic supporter of these operations as well as provide Command and Control. I think that all of the countries in the region will send forces and assist to establish the no fly zone and to defeat ISIS. A few NATO countries will also participate as well as Japan and S. Korea who will also assist in some manner. Remember I said that Iran is the fly in the ointment = soon one of their gun boats that they send to harass our ships will be blown from the water – hopefully no one gets killed. (NOTE: Just like Reagan bombing Gaddafi in 1986 this action will have a ripple affect felt by Iran – Russia – China & N. Korea (N. Korea might be tone deaf to its detriment). Russia will keep is navy base but I do not think that it will be allowed to keep its air base. If/when Syria fly’s its airplanes its air bases will be bombed. Not by airplanes due to the sophisticated air defense provided by Russia but Cruise Missiles. Cruise missiles have a range of over 1,000 miles flying below radar and are accurate at that range to within a few feet. The six Syrian air bases & support facilities will all be taken out in a single strike unannounced.
-MILITARY: Covert – I believe that a contract to upgrade the military of Egypt – Jordan – Saudi Arabia will be a negotiated part of their support and perhaps Turkey as well.
-Economic: Overt – Saudi Arabia will be allowed to finish its pipe line to Europe and some sanctions will be lifted from Russia. King Abdullah of Jordon will be helped economically because of the financial burden Jordan has faced with the refugees from Syria. Iraq will be helped to rebuild its infrastructure that ISIS destroyed. This financial assistance will come from Saudi Arabia because the area of Iraq ISIS occupied is Sunni Muslim.
-Covert – Iran will be told to get out or Sanctions will be imposed and assets frozen. We will have Iran sandwiched between Afghanistan and Iraq.
Just thought to share this. Certainly I could go into more detail but I kept it simple just to get the gist of my thinking across. I look forward to comments and debate.